The Atlantic hurricane season of 2025 hasn’t officially started until June 3, but meteorologists are closely monitoring a large low-pressure area forming near Central America — which could become the cradle of the first storm of 2025, earlier than expected.
According to FOX Weather Forecast Center, weather models consistently show a high likelihood that a broad low-pressure system will develop by the end of next week, stretching from the Pacific across Central America to Colombia.
This phenomenon may be linked to a large-scale atmospheric circulation known as the Central American Gyre, which has historically been responsible for many out-of-season storms.
Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist at FOX Weather, noted: “This Central American low-pressure area will bring prolonged rainfall to the region, but high pressure over the northern Caribbean will prevent it from moving north.”
However, under favorable conditions — such as sufficiently warm ocean temperatures and weak upper-level winds — tropical cyclones could form within this low-pressure zone.
The Central American Gyre is not a hurricane itself, but acts like a “rain incubator,” drawing in moisture from the Pacific and spreading it over hundreds of kilometers. The result is often heavy rain, flooding, and landslides, affecting over a dozen countries from Guatemala to Colombia.
Out-of-season storms are no longer rare. According to historical data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), since 1851, there have been 43 tropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic before June 3 — on average, once every four years.
Notably, between 2015 and 2021, every year recorded at least one early-forming storm. Only the 2022 and 2024 hurricane seasons had no out-of-season storms.
Initial forecasts suggest that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may be another active one. According to a report published on April 3 by Colorado State University (CSU), up to 17 named storms could form, with 9 potentially strengthening into hurricanes, and 4 reaching the status of “major hurricanes” (Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph / 179 km/h).
These figures exceed the 30-year average, which stands at 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes per season.